The future of Russia is being decided in Chechnya

For roughly thirty years, Chechnya has captured the world’s attention to an extent that does not correspond to its size or political status. It was in this small country, which had about one million inhabitants at the time, that the future form of the Russian Federation was being decided: whether it would maintain an imperialist and militaristic system or embark on the path of declared democratization.

Not separatism, but restored independence

During the collapse of the USSR, union republics such as Ukraine or Georgia gained independence. Chechnya, which was an autonomous republic within the RSFSR, followed a similar path. This pursuit of independence was based on the will of the Chechen nation and was not a marginal movement. Chechnya was not a Russian territory that suddenly decided to secede; it was a country forcibly integrated into the Russian Empire after long-standing resistance.

The independence of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria—named by its first democratically elected president, Dzhokhar Dudayev—is based on the declaration of independence from November 26, 1990. Chechnya therefore did not withdraw from the Russian Federation, but from the Soviet Union, which collapsed after the August 1991 coup. The RSFSR became the Russian Federation only on December 25, 1991. Presidential and parliamentary elections in Chechnya took place on October 27, 1991. The Constitution of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria was adopted on March 12, 1992, while the Constitution of the Russian Federation was adopted on December 12, 1993. Chechnya was the only entity that refused to sign the federative treaty with Russia and, therefore, legally never entered the Russian Federation. Consequently, the Federation could not exercise jurisdiction over its territory.

1994: The first Russian military intervention

At that time, the Russian Federation showed that the USSR had changed in form, but not in essence. After attempts to destabilize the young republic—for example, by sending Russian soldiers disguised as Chechen oppositionists to Grozny—and despite Dudayev’s willingness to negotiate, Russia proceeded in 1994 with its traditional approach: de jure “restoration of constitutional order,” de facto military aggression.

Russian forces conducted so-called “cleansing operations” against the civilian population under the pretext of eliminating militants. One of the most notorious cases from the First Chechen War is the fate of the village of Samashki, which was burned down and where 100 to 300 inhabitants—children, women, and the elderly—were tortured and killed. Despite these intimidation methods and Russia’s significant military superiority, Chechnya emerged from the first war in 1996 as the victor.

Between two wars: Destabilization and propaganda

The Russian Federation legally recognized the independence of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria at least twice: in the Khasavyurt Accords of August 31, 1996, and in the peace treaty of May 12, 1997. However, the treaty contained no compensation for human or material losses. On the contrary, it spoke of the need to “end their centuries-old rivalry” and to “forever renounce the use of force,” thereby seeking to create an impression of shared responsibility.

Russia made no attempt to repair the damage and continued with destabilization, which it presented as internal problems within Chechen society. The goal was to show that Chechnya was incapable of being an independent state. At the same time, Russia was preparing its retaliation. For it to be accepted (by the Russian population, editor’s note), it had to be carefully staged.

This time, in addition to military superiority, Russia had a fundamental information advantage. In September 1999, Russian secret services organized apartment bombings in several Russian cities. These events were attributed to Chechens and used as a pretext for a new war. Chechen involvement was never proven; some Russian politicians even admitted to Russian involvement. However, the Kremlin succeeded in mobilizing public opinion while simultaneously suppressing Chechen voices on the international stage.

1999: The second Russian military intervention

The operation was presented as “counter-terrorist.” Under its cover, war crimes and crimes against humanity were committed. In 2003, the UN designated Grozny as the “most destroyed city on earth.” It was in this context that Vladimir Putin came to power at the turn of the millennium.

The regime of Russian occupation

There has never been a trial for the crimes committed during both Chechen wars. These wars have effectively not ended, and the population has not returned to normal life, only to an illusion of stability. The Chechen Republic of Ichkeria was occupied by the Russian Federation. Putin installed Ramzan Kadyrov at the head of the regime, who implements controversial aspects of Kremlin policy.

Human rights violations include total control, restrictions on freedom of speech, kidnappings, torture, and enforced disappearances. Chechens are also persecuted abroad. Several murders have occurred in Europe, including the 2019 murder of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili in Berlin, committed by Vadim Krasikov.

International context and repression

The effectiveness of this repressive system is also linked to international factors. Some European states perceive opponents of Russia as terrorists, thereby indirectly supporting the Russian strategy, including the abuse of tools such as Interpol for politically motivated persecution.

Since 2022, Chechens have faced a new form of pressure: they are being sent to fight in Ukraine. The strategic importance of the region is so high that Russia maintains a significant portion of its forces there. On October 18, 2022, the Ukrainian parliament recognized the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria as temporarily occupied territory and designated the actions against Chechens as genocide.

The Chechen question in the process of decolonization

The Chechen question represents Russia’s Achilles’ heel and fits into the broader context of the decolonization process. The severity of the repression is intended to prevent a domino effect among the nations forcibly integrated into the state.

Just as thirty years ago, the future of Russia may once again be decided in Chechnya. The key question is: is Chechnya a Russian region, or a temporarily occupied territory? The answer will determine Russia’s ability to respect the right of nations to self-determination.

A state cannot democratize if it simultaneously holds entire nations under duress. The Chechen nation has repeatedly expressed its will for independence and, despite a lack of international support and harsh repression, continues to resist.

Centuries of resistance

This resistance did not begin with the collapse of the USSR; it is part of a centuries-old history. Understanding it is key to understanding the nature of Russian power and to finding answers to the challenges it presents.