Putin will only stop his provocations in the Baltic states once he understands that it will end in catastrophe for him.
However, for this understanding to be reached, it is necessary to demonstrate political will and readiness for military conflict. I have said many times that the combined forces of NATO’s northeastern flank would be capable of inflicting irreparable damage on Putin. If the will were there.
It must be clearly stated that in the event of a provocation, some European countries will resist the aggressor—including an attack on his territory. The Finns and Estonians would destroy the Baltic Fleet in an instant. It is also perfectly clear that if Poland wants to capture Kaliningrad, it will do so—it is surrounded on all sides.
If we take the simple stance that any provocation will trigger an immediate military response with irreparable damage to the aggressor, then all talk of the Suwalki Gap and Narva will quickly end. Such a topic simply will not exist—because the balance of power is obvious.
An aggressor is not provoked by strength, but by incapacity. He is provoked by cowardice and the effort to reach some kind of deal. Such behavior is a direct incentive for the aggressor to keep trying. A bandit—and Putin’s state is a classic bandit—will do whatever he wants as long as he feels safe. It is time to eliminate this safe zone for him.
